Llenul

0x1e9d3b...956ed1

Smart Score

Win Rate

27.3%

Total P&L

+$211

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.28

Sortino Ratio

-2.17

Max Drawdown

1028.8%

ROI

36.0%

Profit Factor

2.26

Kelly Fraction

0.152

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

08.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	27.1¢	107.343	Mar 5
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	13.4¢	217.39	Mar 5
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	75.0¢	42.44	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	7.0¢	285.714	Mar 3
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	6.0¢	500	Mar 3
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	25.9¢	115.902	Mar 1
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	23.0¢	217.391	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	99.8¢	162.16	Mar 1
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	53.0¢	40.759	Mar 1
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	8.8¢	113.111	Mar 1
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	SELL	0.4¢	526.31	Feb 28
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	BUY	1.9¢	526.316	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	18.5¢	162.162	Feb 28
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in February 2026?	BUY	26.5¢	113.07	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	38.0¢	99.5	Feb 18
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	BUY	14.0¢	71.429	Jan 31
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?	BUY	8.0¢	25	Jan 27
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY	24.0¢	208.333	Jan 18

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing8.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.45

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)7.5%

Win Consistency18.2%

Profit Factor0.21

Drawdown Resilience0.17

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.17

Weekly Sharpe est.0.13

Trading Activity18 trades · 8 active days

P&L Calendar

$1991d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

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